Brexit: A big discrepancy between supply and demand of investment research

A referendum is being held on Thursday, 23 June to decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union. This was officially announced a few months back in February. Since then the discussion of the pros and cons has significantly gained momentum. We will show that publishers of investment research (Investment Banks etc.) have been lagging the “Brexit” interest of their readers. In other words, “Brexit” has been a relevant topic for the user of investment research much longer then for the writers of investment research.

We came to this (non-academic) conclusion after we analysed the following set of data:

  1. In how many investment analysis reports the word “Brexit” is mentioned since the beginning of 2015 (as a percentage of all documents featured on OpinioPro.com)
  2. In how many investment analysis reports that were actually read the word “Brexit” is mentioned (as a percentage of all read documents on OpinioPro.com).

The first step was to check on a monthly basis in how many investment research reports, we have currently 3.500 available, the word “Brexit” was mentioned. As you can see from the chart below, for the most part of 2015 the word “Brexit” did not feature in more than 5% of all reports. In other words, investment writers were not really interested in the subject. This changed significantly in 2016. In May the word can be found in 30% of all publications.

To put things in perspective we also added “Grexit” to the equation. At the top of the Grexit hype last summer it was mentioned in 27% of all reports. So it seems that right now Brexit is a bigger topic then Grexit.

But so far we took a look at was has been written. Does this correspond with what has been read? And the answer is a clear NO. As can be seen from the chart as from November interest from readers has been much higher. Interest topped in March (in 46% of all read documents the word “brexit” is mentioned) and is declining since then. Although more has been written, readers are starting to read less about the subject. We can only guess why this is happening, maybe everything has been said by March? One thing is clear, there seems to be a investment research supply-demand disbalance.

what worrie investors.xlsx

 

 

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