Seven Research Reports you don’t want to miss (nr.#5)

3C, HY, EM, 3J, ECB, FED and other abbreviations.

  1. Central Banks policy was (of course) in the spotlight again the past few weeks. In “The limits of monetary policy: Are central banks losing their magic touch?” Deutsche Bank is taking a step back and delves into the pros and cons of the central bank interventions and its implication for the investment process.
  2. In their Monthly Commodity update ABN-Amro is saying out loud what most already suspected / hoped: “Commodity prices have bottomed”. According to the Dutch bank a weaker US dollar and monetary stimulus by central banks should support the overall demand outlook for commodities.
  3. In another interesting research paper ABN-Amro is proclaiming that the US Dollar is over. The three drivers which fuelled the US Dollar rally, (among them the falling commodity prices, see previous article), are now less positive.
  4. In Holland we have a music group called 3js (the three J’s), if you never heard of them, let’s keep it like that. But from an investment perspective you certainly have heard of the three C’s that are rocking the global economic boat. In their Cyclical Outlook Pimco asks the question whether there are “Calmer C’s ahead?” And of course the 3C’s are an abbreviation for China, Commodities & Central Banks.
  5. Alpha Research published its monthly Asset Allocation Consensus. Among asset managers High Yield is still the favourite fixed income asset class, but a little less overweight then the previous month.
  6. Robeco is one of the asset managers with a positive outlook on High Yield, which they made very clear with the newsflash “High yield remains our preferred risky asset”. CIO Lucas Daalder tells you why.
  7. In “EMs trade engine has lost power” AXA is taking a look at world trade and its impact on economic growth in Emerging markets. They show a confrontational chart from which it is clear that global trade is on a much slower growth path then it used to be before the global financial crisis (2008). This is especially worrisome for EM commodity exporters.

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