Keyword of the week: Brexit. To read all docs related to the tag Brexit just click here. Some are also mentioned in this blog.
- Degroof Petercam published its monthly Asset Allocation Flash. They still think a hard Chinese landing can be avoided. For Emerging Markets in general they stay neutral. Valuations seem attractive but earnings growth remains under pressure.
- In the Research Paper (28 pages) “Brexit”, AXA takes an in depth look at the consequences of a possible Brexit. Especially they look at the impact on UK trade and the financial services. What will be the costs to the UK?
- In “Four months of uncertainty for the UK” Source is asking the question whether a Brexit is likely or not. Instead of looking at notoriously unreliable poll results they look at the odds offered by the bookmakers. For now that suggest a slight majority for a “stay”.
- In “Brexit: Initial Thoughts and Possible Implications” Pioneer takes a look at the possible implications for the UK of a Brexit. According to them it would likely lead to lower ratings for the UK government and, by implication, potentially UK companies as well.
- Novus is asking the question “How Do Hedge Funds Become Better Forecasters?” Or more in general how you can become a better forecaster. The good news for the most of us: genius isn’t required (pfff). Some simple steps may improve your forecasting skills. First step is to get serious about data collection and management. Last step is to think in probabilities, not certainties.
- Barclays also delved into the subject of forecasting. In the “The blind men and the elephant” they draw an analogy from this story to the world of investing. Here’s the story (Wikipedia version). “It is a story of a group of blind men (or men in the dark) who touch an elephant to learn what it is like. Each one feels a different part, but only one part, such as the side or the tusk. They then compare notes and learn that they are in complete disagreement.” For what you can learn from this story please refer to the article.
- And last but not least AXA published an update of their 2016 economic outlook. With the title they are not beating around the bush “2016: Weakest year since 2009”. Eric Chaney, Chief Economist AXA Group, takes you on an 82 pages slide show trip of economic analysis. So be sure your coffee is ready!