To make a good prediction you need to know the consensus

The book Superforcasting – the art and science of predicting by Philip Tetlock was one of the books that was really standing out in 2015. Philip Tetlock discusses how predictors can get to a satisfying prediction. This book helps you to divide a prediction into little parts and how you can get by these smaller problems and smaller predictions to a great end prediction.

Tetlock uses examples of contemporary politics and decisions, which we know from history, to explain it is all about working with chance. It is never 0% or 100%, but it’s always something in between. A great example is the following question: How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?

By dividing this question into the following parts:

  • How many inhabitants does Chicago have?
  • How many pianos are there on average per 100 inhabitants?
  • How much time does it take to tune a piano?
  • How much does a piano tuner work in a year?

It’s very amusing to see that every answer to these questions was estimated incorrectly, nonetheless the final prediction was only 10 piano tuners from the actual answer. How can you answer these sub-questions correctly? Have access to great research!

Superforcasting vs OpinioPro

To make a good prediction you need to know the consensus. At OpinioPro you can view thousands of research documents. Search for a specific subject and you can find multiple visions. Good ‘superforecasters’ appear to read a lot and discuss their vision with people who don’t share this same vision. Opposite opinions appear to have a good influence making an accurate prediction, tells the book Superforcasting.

OpinioPro wishes to assist investment professionals, by making investment research easily accessible, which will lead to better investment decisions. The search engine is available without registration as well at: www.opiniopro.comSuperforcasting-Philip-Tetlock

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